I'm creating a new baseball stat, but I need your guys' help

[OpalJagger]

So yesterday I thought I'd try to come up with a stat that helps reflects a player's speed and power (obviously slugging percentage does the latter, but I wanted to factor faster players who also hit for power into it, the guys that get doubles by legging them out instead of hitting into gaps).

Anyways, I came up with a few different methods, but what I'm really trying to get at in principle is a stat that reflects how many bases a player will get every time he gets on the basepath. This would have to include stolen bases as well, which I thought would help the speed aspect.

I started late last night and I got kinda stuck because the numbers weren't turning out how I figured, so I started over this afternoon and saw if I could make any progress, which I think I might've. Anyhow, I'm turning it over to you guys for any tweaks or suggestions, anything would be helpful.

Here's what I have so far, using stats from baseball-reference.com. Remember, I'm trying to come up with how many bases on average a player will get once they get on base. I didn't count caught stealing or hit-by-pitches either, so the numbers are a little rough.

• Total Bases + Stolen Bases/Hits + Walks
Soriano ’06: 1.638
Crawford ’05: 1.574
Pierre ’03: 1.261
Henderson ’82: 1.293
Bonds ’96: 1.154
McGwire ‘98: 1.226
Morneau ’06: 1.374
Bay ’05: 1.280

• Total Bases + Stolen Bases + Walks/Hits + Walks
Soriano ’06: 1.910
Bonds ’96: 1.642
Bonds ’01: 1.804
Ichiro ’04: 1.302
Rodriguez ’07: 1.780

As you'll notice, some of the best seasons seem to have the worst numbers, though they improved with the second formula.

[k90dah]

the math is flawed, soriano shudnt be that high

[OpalJagger]

Originally Posted by k90dah

the math is flawed, soriano shudnt be that high

Soriano had a killer season that year, it was his 40-40 one, but I still can't see it being better than some of the best seasons ever. That's where I hope you guys can help me out, make some sense of the stat.

[spectra]

lol i could have sworn posting here already writing all of the discrepancies in this

well you have to consider

infield singles, stretching doubles, flyballs to groundballs, stealing home, get home on wild pitch from second, inside the park home runs, how far hrs go, times caught stealing, pitcher/catcher combination that stolen base happened with, total bases doesn't help because if the guy is walked and brought home, thats 4 bases that is added which damage the total

there are a lot more problems

Hanley Ramirez is probably #1.......................

[k90dah]

u wanna make this stat accurate basicaly, i wud imagine u wud need the times that everyone runs from home to first n there homeruns, n stolen bases, n basicaly add them together and divide by 3 n divide that by the highest sum , for example, highest in current season is
3 seconds home to first 55 homers, and 60 stolen bases= 118, and soriano say is 40, 40 n 4 seconds
so do 118/84 n the decimal is the number it makese sense i think

[OpalJagger]

Originally Posted by spectra

lol i could have sworn posting here already writing all of the discrepancies in this

well you have to consider

infield singles, stretching doubles, flyballs to groundballs, stealing home, get home on wild pitch from second, inside the park home runs, how far hrs go, times caught stealing, pitcher/catcher combination that stolen base happened with, total bases doesn't help because if the guy is walked and brought home, thats 4 bases that is added which damage the total

there are a lot more problems

Hanley Ramirez is probably #1.......................

Unfortunately there isn't that kind of info available. MLB.com's play-by-play application has great info on pitching, and NBA.com has great shot info, but there could easily be more hitting info in baseball, especially cause it's such a stat-crazy sport.

Brought home by what though, 3 walks behind him? Total bases is actually only a stat that counts bases from hits, being walked home simply counts as a run scored for that player, on top of the one BB he received from the walk.

EDIT: Thinking about it now, walks have nothing to do speed, they're simply a result of plate discipline. It might be a good idea to totally ignore them in this stat. Thanks for making me think of it.

EDIT NUMBER TWO: Never mind, I remember why I put in walks. You can't steal a base if you aren't walked, so that's where they come in.

Another part of this though is that you guys can take some players stats and do the calculations yourself, anything helps. I'd love to see Hanley's rating.

Originally Posted by k90dah

u wanna make this stat accurate basicaly, i wud imagine u wud need the times that everyone runs from home to first n there homeruns, n stolen bases, n basicaly add them together and divide by 3 n divide that by the highest sum , for example, highest in current season is
3 seconds home to first 55 homers, and 60 stolen bases= 118, and soriano say is 40, 40 n 4 seconds
so do 118/84 n the decimal is the number it makese sense i think

Good try, but you're trying to quantify things that aren't on the same planes of statistics. Times can't be added to quantities of homers and stolen bases, the 3 seconds is worth a lot more than 3 homers or 3 stolen bases, that's the problem with doing that.

I can understand using the highest quantity in the current season for comparative purposes, but if you've done chem or physics or even business calculations, you need to have an agreement between what you're adding/subtracting and what you're multiplying/dividing. That equation just doesn't have that.

[OpalJagger]

Just found this on Wikipedia. I'd heard of Bill James, the baseball statistician, before this, just didn't know he'd come up with my stat. Right down to the name:

Originally Posted by Bill James via Wikipedia

• Secondary Average. A statistic that attempts to measure a player's contribution to an offense in ways not reflected in batting average. The formula is (Extra bases on hits+Walks+Stolen Bases)/At bats. Secondary averages tend to be similar to batting averages, but can vary widely, from less than .100 to more than .500 in extreme cases. Extra bases on hits is calculated with the formula (Doubles)+(Triplesx2)+(Homerunsx3).

• Power/Speed Number. A statistic that attempts to consolidate the various "clubs" of players with impressive numbers of both home runs and stolen bases (e.g., the "30/30" club (Bobby Bonds was well known for being a member), the "40/40" club (Jose Canseco was the first to perform this feat), and even the "25/65" club (Joe Morgan in the '70s)). The formula: (2x(Home Runs)x(Stolen Bases))/(Home Runs + Stolen Bases).

I used the second formula with Barry Bonds' and Alfonso Soriano's 40/40 seasons:

Soriano:
(2x(46)x(41))/(46 + 41)
92*41/87
43.35

Bonds:
(2x(42)x(40))/(42 + 40)
84*40/82
40.97

I didn't do anyone else, or even try with the first formula there cause it's not so much related to what I was looking for specifically when I came up with this stat. I think the problem with "ratings" like this is that it's hard really say how a player with that rating effects the outcome of a game, whereas my stat reflects the average number of bases generated.

That way, if you have enough players generating enough bases, you'll guarantee yourself some runs. That's where I'm coming from with my idea, the same way Moneyball stresses OBP.

Also, you'll notice there's multiplication by numbers (x2, x3 and so on). I like to stay away from that and let the stats speak for themselves, or at least use numbers that have meaning, like say 3.4 because (I'm not saying it is) that's the number of times more a double happens than a triple.

[k90dah]

wow lol i didnt no about that interesting fact, to bad its not used a major stat

[spectra]

Originally Posted by k90dah

u wanna make this stat accurate basicaly, i wud imagine u wud need the times that everyone runs from home to first n there homeruns, n stolen bases, n basicaly add them together and divide by 3 n divide that by the highest sum , for example, highest in current season is
3 seconds home to first 55 homers, and 60 stolen bases= 118, and soriano say is 40, 40 n 4 seconds
so do 118/84 n the decimal is the number it makese sense i think

lol time that it takes to run to home? (not everyone runs, they jog, maybe even walk)

[k90dah]

Originally Posted by spectra

lol time that it takes to run to home? (not everyone runs, they jog, maybe even walk)

i meant that it wud be a like a sprinting time like the combines in the NFl lol ur such a smart ass