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Super Bowl XLII
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NEW ENGLAND (16-0) VS NEW YORK (10-6)
FIVE REASONS WHY NEW ENGLAND WILL WIN;
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| 1. Tom Brady will perform at his best. His much-discussed ankle injury, suffered in the AFC Championship Game, won't be a factor. It didn't even show up on the Patriots' injury report, and he practiced all week. Brady's struggles against San Diego in the AFC title game were an aberration. Against the Giants, we will see the Brady who won league MVP by throwing 50 touchdowns. On Sunday, he will attack the middle of the field with slot receiver Wes Welker and tight end Benjamin Watson. Welker and Watson are fast enough to split safeties Gibril Wilson and James Butler and help open up the perimeter for speedy wideouts Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth, with one or both reaching the end zone. 2. The Pats will be able to run the ball effectively. The most under-appreciated aspect of the offense is their rushing attack, which ranked 13th in the NFL. Laurence Maroney has come on as a major force in the postseason. Maroney is particularly successful running up the middle, behind center Dan Koppen and guards Logan Mankins and Russ Hochstein. He should continue to have that sort of impact in the Super Bowl in order to help slow down the Giants' pass rush and give the Patriots' offense some balance. 3. Brady will effectively use play-action against the Giants' aggressive defensive front. He is one of the very best quarterbacks in the league at reading the blitz, and quickly checking to hot routes. The Patriots will spread the field with four- and five-receiver sets and let Brady locate mismatches. Most everything that the Pats do on offense begins with Brady using play-fakes and attacking with short and intermediate passes. The quicker he gets the ball out -- especially on sideline routes -- the better his chances of keeping the chains moving and getting into a rhythm. And he will be able to do exactly that on Sunday. 4. New England should do a good job of handling the Giants' impressive one-two rushing attack of powerful Brandon Jacobs and speedy Ahmad Bradshaw. The Patriots did an excellent job of shutting down Jacksonville's rushing attack, one of the best in the NFL, in their divisional-round victory over the Jaguars. The Pats' run-stopping ability begins with nose tackle Vince Wilfork using his considerable lower-body strength and leverage to clog the middle and force runners to bounce outside to Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas. New England's aging inside linebackers, 39-year-old Junior Seau and 34-year-old Tedy Bruschi, should be able to count on Wilfork to keep them free of blockers. The Giants will need at least two blockers to handle to Wilfork, and that should help provide freedom for ends Richard Seymour and Ty Warren, and the Pats' linebackers. 5. Once the Patriots have the Giants' running game under control, they will be able to confuse Eli Manning, or at least keep him off balance, by mixing up fronts and coverages. Although Manning has yet to throw an interception in the postseason, he should count on some pass-rushing configurations that he has never seen before and coverages that will cause him to hold the ball and/or take a sack, make a poor pass under duress, or entice him into making a bad pass. |
FIVE REASONS WHY NEW YORK WILL WIN;
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| 1. They can get to Tom Brady By my highly unofficial count, Brady was hit nine times against the Giants the first time they played. He was pressured eight more times. While the Patriots were ultimately successful, they had to change their game plan after the first quarter to short passes. Brady also was required to play perhaps his best game of the season. Until the game-winning touchdown to Randy Moss, nothing came easy in that game. 2. Eli is suddenly accurate There is a misperception about how well Eli Manning is playing over the last month. He isn't just "managing the game" and "avoiding mistakes." He's playing lights out, throwing darts to back shoulders; He's making difficult throws look commonplace. This is quite surprising because accuracy has always been a problem for him. His tendency to throw the ball two feet over Plaxico Burress' head was the stuff of punch lines. Against the Patriots, Bucs and Packers especially, Manning completed pass after pass into tight windows. 3. Eli is suddenly calm in the pocket The other deserved criticism of Manning as a pro was his tendency to bail out when defenders got in his face. Throughout this season, Eli has done a better job stepping up in the pocket. And during the playoffs, he has dealt well with blitzing teams, completing 21-of-31 passes for 198 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. (Thanks to the excellent Albert Breer for those numbers). Eli, unlike his older brother, also can make plays on the run. It's hard to say why things changed suddenly, but he isn't just lucky to be here like Rex Grossman last year. 4. They are balanced Bill Belichick's coaching trademark is identifying the other team's greatest strength and taking it away. But what is the Giants' best offensive attribute? In the first meeting, the Patriots were determined to stop the run and Eli Manning enjoyed a great start. The way Plaxico Burress is playing, perhaps he's the key to the New York offense. But that could open up running lanes for Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. 5. No one wants to tackle Brandon Jacobs Jacobs was stuffed during the first half of the last Patriot meeting, but Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison took turns getting run over by the Train in the final 30 minutes. Jacobs had 80 total yards in the second half, many of them after Patriot defenders dove at Jacobs' feet. |
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